We assert to the turkish nation that their sons have been within our range for a. Postrevolution iran represented an opportunity for syrian president hafez alassad to find a new counterweight to israel and iraq, syrias regional foes. This decoupling is unlikely for now, but it is possible with time as assad regains his control over syria and seeks independence from his iranian overlord. Territorial losses in syria and iraq mean islamic state militants are igniting bloody sectarian insurgencies elsewhere. Iran and syria is thus a key vulnerability for iranian strategy in syria.
Any such american strategy needs to take account of the way that, in the middle east, everything is connected. Shortly after the horrific attacks on 911, it was discovered that there was an american plan to dismantle the regimes of seven countries. Iranian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Syrias strategic alliance with egypt ended around the same time due to egypts treaty with israel. Pdf iranian strategy in iraq and syria walter posch. Iraq, syria, lebanon, libya, somalia, sudan and lastly, iran. There are five major potential areas of risk that may limit the lifetime of such a strategy. Oct 11, 2017 they will also get reassurance that iranian influence in syria will be limited. The tacit agreement between moscow and tel aviv appears to be under strain, as israel has launched numerous air strikes at iranian targets in syria. A logic all its own russian operational art in the syrian. As tehran expands its capabilities and role as both an unconventional and conventional threat in the middle east, it is more important than ever that we understand irans military power and the threat it.
The best strategy to roll back iranian influence is to weaken it in syria by denying it the resources it has invested. The trump administration could emphasize to putin that russian and iranian interests in syria are bound to clash in the future, and therefore an alliance with iran can only go so far. Most of hezbollahs weapons are reportedly transshipped through syria, and syria provides a proiranian base in the arab heartland that iran seeks to further its own campaign of regional influence. Dec 04, 2017 israel must somehow block an iranian presence from emerging. But is the assad regime truly saving the syrian state. Mar 08, 2019 second, iran has restricted those that can receive funding from the lines of credit it offers in syria to iranian companies. Iran would not be able to maintain its current level. Since then, the world witnessed regime change and subsequent civil wars in iraq and libya while somalia and sudan remain failed states. Moscow in the middle despite its alignment with iran, russia. I want to thank jon alterman for his excellent post detailing irans efforts to extend its regional influence. However, he misstated the core problem that has affected virtually every key aspect of u.
The air line of communication between iran and syria is thus a key vulnerability for iranian strategy in syria. Iranian involvement in the syrian civil war military wiki. Irans military forces and operations in syria are significantly more than what has been generally reported so far. Far less has explored why iran is active in these countries. The overthrow of assad is the worst thing that can happen to iranian government and hezbollah. The syrian war has led to the rise and export of terrorism abroad as well as to. The economy is at a standstill, with the national currency, the rial, in free fall. Iranian activity in syria, however, has caused direct and enormous gains. Irans growing influence in syria and its efforts to improve hezbollahs strategic capacities presents israeli decisionmakers with a sense of urgency to act now while the future settlement in syria is still being shaped in order to avoid a fait accompli of an iranian stronghold on israels northern border. This occasional paper is an attempt to assess irans key foreign policy objectives to better understand iranian interests across the region, and thereby identify the strengths and weaknesses of irans strategy. Analysts say that if iranian forces and their allies were to move unopposed into eastern syria it could trigger a backlash by the sunni population, which resents the shiiteflavor of irans.
Understanding irans role in the syrian conflict rusi. The case for and against a realist strategy in syria. Syria is vital to irans strategic interests in the middle east and has long been irans closest state ally. East, where army personnel are deployed in iraq and syria, both active conflict zones. Armyand can be expected to do so for years to come, even if that involvement. Oct 19, 2017 since the beginning of the civil war in syria in 2012, iran has had a growing presence in the country. The american strategy of resolving the syrian conflict through negotiations without applying some kind of persuasive military pressure on damascus failed badly. The islamic republic of iran and the syrian arab republic are close strategic allies, and iran has provided significant support for the syrian government in the syrian civil war, including logistical, technical and financial support, as well as training and some combat troops.
Israel must somehow block an iranian presence from emerging. Traditional regional studies literature focuses on korean issues within the asia paci. Aug 09, 2019 israels shadow war in syria is based on the strategic objective of convincing the islamic republic that its investment in a war machine is going to waste. Quick update on the turkey vs syria, russia and iran the.
It is possible to move to the top of the wests priorities and, moreover, it is difficult to envisage tehrans. Iran s hedging strategy aims to ensure, however, that it can continue to pursue its vital interests if and when the regime collapses, using parts of syria as a base as long as the syrian opposition fails to establish full control over all of syrian territory. On february 11, 2018, israel conducted multiple airstrikes on syrianiranian targets in syria in response to the downing of an israeli f16 in israeli territory following infiltration by an iranian drone. In recent years iran s activities in syria have been severely criticised. But if iran is determined, israels efforts will not be enough. Civil war in syria, iran and iranian strategy in syrian. These developments signal a larger strategic shift on the part of irans military. Russia and israel may already be falling out over israeli air strikes at iranian outposts in syria. Strategic interests in the middle east and implications. A subsection about hezbollahs recruitment efforts in lebanon provides previously unknown details about. Iranian involvement in the syrian civil war military. The successful liberation of mosul may free up iraqi shia fighters for the fight.
Nonetheless, the iranian intervention in syria is more. Iran has conducted an extensive, expensive, and integrated effort to keep president bashar alassad in power as long as possible while setting conditions to retain its ability to use syrian territory and assets to pursue its regional interests should assad fall. Each countrys strategy there is destructive for the other. Russia would usually turn a blind eye, but in april, things changed. The longterm goal would be to drive a wedge between syria and iran, making it clear that syria will pay a price when iran is too aggressive there. International politics does not leave states free to. President trump has taken a strong, almost ideological, stand against the jcpoa nuclear agreement with iran, and seems committed to. Israel then must decide on a strategy for dealing with a strong iranian force in both syria and lebanon while also avoiding a costly ground war. Iran sees the survival of the syrian government as being crucial to its regional interests. Secretary mattis was all too accurate in noting the lack of effective united states strategies and strategic planning. Moscows mild reaction to these events reflects its desire to maintain cooperation with both tehran and jerusalem. Dprksyriairan nuclear nexus and strategic implications for israel and the rok by christina y. Or, if the sauditurkish alliance keeps harming iranian interests in yemen, iran may increase its support of russian strategies in syria, or take sides with russia in the azeriarmenian conflict.
Iran faces uphill battle to profit from its role in syria. At the same time, suggestions in the russian media over the past few days point to an interesting scenario in which the israeli involvement in syria forces russia to more openly declare a proiranian strategy. Especially the presence of shiite militias orchestrated by tehran was in the center of western, arab and of course israeli critique. For its own part, iran is syrias only regional ally and an escape valve for pressure applied by. More specifically, the problem for them is the iranian military presence in syria and the consolidation of the shiite crescent, a land bridge from tehran to the. A comprehensive strategy for syria carnegie endowment. Irans strategy in the levant middle east strategy at harvard. Irans foreign policy principles irans strategy in its hostile surrounding region has been a matter of controversy over the past decades. Iran faces uphill battle to profit from its role in syria war. While most of the prerouhani involvement strategies specifically in iraq and syria have not been interrupted, tehran has.
To understand the shift in irans operational strategy in syria, it is. Opposition gains in syria have interdicted many ground resupply routes between baghdad and damascus, and the relative paucity of iranian portvisits in syria suggests that irans sealanes to syria are more symbolic than practical. Jan 22, 2018 analysts say that if iranian forces and their allies were to move unopposed into eastern syria it could trigger a backlash by the sunni population, which resents the shiiteflavor of irans. An iranian viewpoint on the battle for syria consortiumnews. Mar 16, 2017 has irans success in syria made it an arena for longerterm conflict. Push back on iran in yemen, and they might well stir up. Iran and syria are close strategic allies, and iran has provided significant support for the syrian government in the syrian civil war, including logistical, technical and financial support, as well as training and some combat troops. The latest here is that iran and hezbollah have warned turkey that the turkish observation posts were under clear observation and direct fire could easily follow in one statement and in another later one direct from iranian military advisory center in syria. Its mission is to be an analytical, researchled global forum for informing, influencing and. Irans strategy in the levant middle east strategy at. Data i have collected from persian online sources show at least 349 iranian nationals. Factional interests, competition, and public opinion irans foreign policy often appears to reflect differing approaches and outlooks among key players and interest groups.
Sanctions target iranian revolutionary guards, radio free europe, may 10, 2018. Iranian military presence in syria and conclusions zenith. The regions mix of violent extremism, malign iranian influence, and decaying regimes require the involvement of the united statesto include the u. However, the offensive component of the iranian strategy was a failure since the saa, supplemented by foreign shia militias, failed to achieve the main operational objective of capturing aleppo. Irans supreme leader, ali khamenei, was reported in september 2011. Israels shadow war in syria is based on the strategic objective of convincing the islamic republic that its investment in a war machine is going to waste. Unlike iran, syrias limited resources and the lack of a clear grand strategy. They will also get reassurance that iranian influence in syria will be limited. Deep israeli involvement could unravel russias dominant role in syria. The iranian moment and turkey the german marshall fund. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian conflict. When secretary of defense james mattis left the pentagon, he was quoted as describing washington as a strategy free zone. The iranian embassy and its cultural attache in damascus have been active in the dissemination of the shiite creed in syria and are active in missionary work in every province of the country, which they support by way of financial inducements, scholarships to iranian universities, free medical care, monthly stipends, and more. Instead, the assad government, with help from militia forces mobilized by iranian and russian air support, gradually recaptured all of western syria through punishing.
Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. May 17, 2018 syria and iraq formally ended more than twenty years of diplomatic estrangement, when syrias foreign minister, walid muallem, visited iraq in 2006, which was the first such meeting since the. Either way, the lataika campaign is a prime example of the limits of irans operational strategy. In fact, iranian policy towards syria is likely to involve very complex problems. Since the beginning of the civil war in syria in 2012, iran has had a growing presence in the country.
A logic all its own russian operational art in the syrian campaign, the author describes the unique logic of russian military thought and how russia successfully implemented operational art during its campaign in syria. Assessing options for regime change daniel byman, michael doran, kenneth pollack, and salman shaikh. A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. Postrevolution iran represented an opportunity for syrian president hafez alassad to find a.
The role of iranian security forces in the syrian bloodshed. Iran would not be able to maintain its current level of support to assad if this air route were interdicted through a nofly zone or rebel capture of syrian airfields. The trump administration has inherited syria as a land of lost options, and as a country where u. The iranian moment and turkey the german marshall fund of. Iransyria relations improved dramatically after the iranian revolution of 1979.
Iranian strategy in syria institute for the study of war. Russia needed to isolate hayat tahrir alsham in idlib so that turkey could establish control of the territory as part of the deescalation agreement that russia, turkey and iran reached in september. Assads campaign strategy in syria download the pdf u. Iran began its military involvement in syria in 2011, at the outbreak of the civil war.
Iran has so far chosen to weather the strikes and shift tactics without abandoning its syria project. Iranian objectives will diverge in syria as time wears on. Introduction iranian combat operations in syria reveal the regimes determination and ability to develop conventional military capabilities for use in expeditionary operations in the middle east. Turkeys deployment in idlib is one way of achieving this. Iran is doing in syria, iraq, lebanon, yemen, and elsewhere. Apr 23, 2018 the meeting between president trump and president macron can all too easily slip into one that either dodges the key issues that both countries need to address in dealing with syria and iran, or help cement the differences between the u. Assad regime present in syria is extremely important for both iran and hizballah because syria has been the center state that has facilitated the growth of hizballah and their communication with iran. The strategic relations between iran and syria are characterized as effective, nonpsychotic, non faltering. Michael segall amid the intensifying crisis in syria, which in recent weeks has seen massacres of the civilian population in various parts of the country, iranian military, propaganda, and. Syrias alliance with iran this is the fifth in a series of usipeace briefings on syria published by the institutes center for conflict analysis and prevention. Second, iran has restricted those that can receive funding from the lines of credit it offers in syria to iranian companies. Breaking down iran and russias military strategy in syria. Middle east, iranian officials have sought to engage with some historic u.
Pdf at a time when the syrian crisis is still continuing because of the two interventions. For instance, if iran sees its interests threatened in syria, it may play the kurdish card. Use the ongoing nuclear talks with iran as a platform for a further syria deal. Dec 30, 2017 territorial losses in syria and iraq mean islamic state militants are igniting bloody sectarian insurgencies elsewhere.
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